Gould, The Wheel of Fortune and the Wedge of Progress

ing out others; with the jar and shock often transmitted very far to other wedges in many lines of direction.

I have focused upon Darwin's commitment to the metaphor of the wedge because this unappreciated core belief, more than the notion of natural selection itself, shaped Darwin's conventional view about progress and predictability in the long-term history of life. Darwin, like any honest man in a world of such inordinate complexity, struggled hard but failed to resolve several crucial issues in the interpretation of nature. No question troubled him more than the common assumption, so crucial to Victorian Britain at the height of industrial and imperial success, that progress must mark the pathways of evolutionary change.

Darwin clearly understood that the basic mechanics of natural selection offered no statement about progress, for the theory only speaks of local adaptation to changing environments. (No theme is more distinctive and radical in Darwin's thought, and no subject has circulated more frequently through these columns during the past fifteen years.) But Darwin, as an eminent, if critical, Victorian himself, could not let go of progress so cleanly. He wished to validate predictable advance as a major theme of the fossil record, but knew that the bare bones of natural selection could not rationalize this belief. How then, could progress be affirmed as a fact of life's history if the fundamental theorem of organic change--natural selection--did not imply progress by itself?

To resolve this troubling discordance between the mechanics of his basic theory and his fundamental impression of pattern in life's history, Darwin called upon a second, basically ecological principle encompassed by the metaphor of the wedge. Nature, Darwin believed, is full of species("a surface covered with ten thousand sharp wedges ... all packed closely together"). All potential addresses are occupied, but new challengers continually arrive to compete for space. They can succeed in a full world only by driving other species out in overt competition for limited resources ("the one driven deeply in forcing out others"). It's a tough, crowded world out there, and successful creatures claw their way to the top and remain there by constant vigilance and conquest. The Origin of Species contains several passages about progress in the history of life, and all are validated, not by the bare bones mechanism of natural selection, but by the second principle of the wedge, the vision of a full world ruled by overt competition among organisms: The more recent forms must, on my theory, be higher than the more ancient; for each new species is formed by having had some advantage in the struggle for life over other and preceding forms.... I do not doubt that this process of improvement had affected in a marked and sensible manner the organization or the more recent and victorious forms of life, in comparison with the ancient and beaten forms.


But what actual evidence do we have that long-term trends in the history of life arise by continuous and intense biological competition in a perennially crowded world? (Other models of the operation of natural selection are surely plausible. Perhaps most species do not fall victim to overt wedging by superior competitors, but to changes in the physical environment that are too rapid or extensive to elicit an adaptive response.) I am persuaded that some cases in Darwin's preferred mode of organic competition have been documented. Biologist Geerat Vermeij (who lays out the brief for Darwin's view most elegantly in his recent book Evolution and Escalation, Princeton University Press, 1987), for example, has demonstrated a geological trend for thicker and stronger crab claws matched by ever more efficient defenses (spines, knobs, and thick shells) in the snails that crabs love to eat. I accept the interpretation of this lock-step escalation as an "arms race."

But just as we needed so great a scholar as Aristotle, in so weighty a place as the Nicomachean Ethics, to teach us that one swallow does not make a spring (yes, he said spring, not summer), a case or two in the fossil record does not establish a pattern. Directional trends produced by wedging do occur, but they scarcely cry for recognition from every quarry and hillslope. The overwhelming majority of palcontological trends tell no obvious story of conquest in competition. Why did the large and gorgeously complex ammonites crash to oblivion some 65 million years ago, while their rarer and apparently simpler closest cousins, the nautiloids, survived to our own day as the "ship of pearl" immortalized by Oliver Wendell Holmes(and Eugene O'Neill) as the builder of "more stately mansions." Why did all members of three great groups of crinoids die 225 million years ago, leaving all subsequent time to a fourth group that survives today but sports no feature ever identified as an improvement over the three losers? Why did a similar replacement of one group by another occur in reef-building corals at the same time, and why can no theme of improvement in competition be discerned here either? Why, for that matter, did dinosaurs die and mammals prevail after 100 million years of reptilian success and mammalian marginality? (If mammals were competitively superior, they certainly displayed no hurry in wedging out their "predecessors in the race for life," for 100 million years is almost two-thirds of mammalian history. Moreover, recent views on the sleekness and anatomical sufficiency of dinosaurs speak strongly against any notion of wedging by rat-sized mammals.)

I chose these four cases for two reasons. First, I think that they are far more characteristic of the fossil record--more numerous and more significant in import--than putative examples of progress by wedging. Second, they represent the kind of event that most directly challenges the metaphor of the wedge and therefore the favored rationale for progress by rigorous competition among organisms--"changing of the guard" across episodes of mass extinction. In fact, these four cases provide a small sample of events, a pair for each, in the two most celebrated mass extinctions: the Permian debacle that may have wiped out more than 95 percent of marine invertebrate species some 225 million years ago, and the Cretaceous event that removed remaining dinosaurs and gave mammals a chance some 65 million years ago.

Any reader with a good feel for the history of paleontology must now be intensely puzzled. How can I be suggesting that a study of mass extinction will alter our view about directionality in the history of life when widespread and coincident death of species is, perhaps, the oldest recorded fact of the stratigraphic record? The boundaries of the geological time scale, the alphabet of my profession, are defined by events of mass extinction. The two episodes cited in my cases separate the three great eras of life's multicellular history: the Permian extinction between the Paleozoic and the Mesozoic, and the Cretaceous extinction between the Mesozoic and the Cenozoic. How can something so canonical, and so long appreciated, now threaten to disrupt another cherished view about biologically based competition leading to progress in a crowded world?

A resolution to this historical puzzle rests upon a conventional interpretation of mass extinction that makes peace with, or even supports, the notion of biotic struggle as the driving vector of life. Mass extinction is a specter haunting the metaphor of the wedge, but the ghostbusters of denial and accommodation have held the fort--until recently. Darwin himself chose the more vigorous response of denial, trying his darndest to dissolve mass extinction


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