Gould, The Wheel of Fortune and the Wedge of Progress

mixed survivors imbued with opportunities that would never have come their way in a world of purposeful wedging.

We may be indifferent to most of these quirky shifts that eliminated highly successful groups of the moment and passed a potential torch to unheralded creatures in the wings--groups that fortuitously held a winning ticket purchased for a different reason long ago in other circumstances. Few people lament the loss of ammonites, so long as we still have nautiloids. (In fact, I have proof that very few people have ever heard of nautiloids at all, and therefore don't give a damn in the fullest sense. Last month, the World Weekly News, king of the shopping-mall tabloids, published--with absolutely shameless faith in our ignorance--an unretouched photograph of a chambered nautilus labeled as a giant monster now on an earthbound path from Mars and scheduled to arrive well before the millennium.) Who cares (who even knows the names) that all crinoids are now articulates and not inadunates, that reef corals are now seleractinians and not tabulates? Well, you may choose to disdain the details of marine invertebrate life, but you cannot be indifferent to the closest application of the different rules model--the death of dinosaurs and the resultant possibility of human evolution.

You may react to this essay by denying its claim to be conceptually troubling in the light of traditional hopes. You might say, after all, that the different rules model only validates a cliché so old and widely appreciated that it became the motto of such straight arrow groups as the Boy Scouts and such jokers as Sancho Panza--"forewarned is forearmed; to be prepared is half the victory." Yes, "be prepared"; flexibility is a virtue. If you can keep a whole deck up your sleeve, you will surely have a useful card for any circumstance. But the cruel dilemma, the Catch-22, of evolution lies in recognizing that a species cannot consciously or actively prepare for future contingencies. It can only evolve for current benefits and deliver its future fate to the wheel of fortune. Round and round she goes, and where she stops.... No, it's even worse than that. For the wheel never stops, but only speeds and slows, tacks and turns, bringing us along on a grand chase that has somehow produced "from so simple a beginning," to quote the final words of Darwin's great book, "endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful."

Stephen Jay Gould teaches biology, geology, and the history of science at Harvard University.


391